European Central Bank
We collaborated with the European Central Bank to design a high-frequency trade nowcasting tool that leverages daily and weekly data sources, including shipping, financial, and alternative indicators. Using a PCA-based framework with improved seasonal adjustment techniques, the tool produces timely estimates of global imports outside the Euro Area, capturing trade dynamics more accurately than existing models. Our evaluation shows strong directional accuracy—even early in the quarter—and superior performance relative to benchmarks such as LSTM neural networks, making it a valuable addition to the ECB’s forecasting toolkit